Conduct a cohort study

Posted: January 20th, 2023

Click to download and read the scenario for Course Project Part 10. Answer the questions below. Write your answers in complete sentences. You may need to use additional resources outside of your textbook to complete this part of your project. Please be sure to cite any sources you may use with APA and include a Reference page.

You conducted a cohort study in Part 9 of your project; now calculate the risk ratio for the chopped BBQ. Show your calculation.An important aspect of analytical epidemiology is to have confidence the data is sufficient to support your findings. In other words, you need to be sure the study results are not a result of chance alone and are actually associated with the exposure. Inadequate data weakens the viability of your analysis and therefore should not be used in making decisions or policies. Calculating the probability (p-value) that your data is more likely to support the association between the exposure stated in your hypothesis and less likely to support no association (null hypothesis) between the exposure and outcome is called a p-value. Calculating the p-value is beyond the scope of this course so you will not be asked to make this calculation. However, the data provided for the chopped BBQ has a p-value of 0.000587, indicating a strong association.You should now feel confident that the resident’s illness was a result of the BBQ they consumed. The descriptive epidemiology (laboratory results, clinical picture, BBQ preparation and serving processes) and the analytical technique (cohort study) support this hypothesis. So, what aspect of this outbreak is left to solve? A question you might be asking is why wasn’t the attack rate higher if 83% (58/70) of the residents interviewed eat the BBQ. What was the difference among the ill and not ill? To provide a clue to the answer look at the time-line below. This graph shows the attack rate (y-axis) as associated with the estimated time residents eat their dinner meal (which included the contaminated BBQ). Remember meals are delivered from the kitchen to the cottage clusters as the food is ready, even if the residents are not ready to eat. The clusters listed on the x-axis the clusters of cottages (cluster 28 was not associated with the outbreak but was part of the food consumption time line for the campus). Cottage 3b is listed separate from cluster 3 because these residents eat later, due to a field trip, than the three other cottages in cluster 3.

What is your theory on why the attack rate increased as BBQ was consumed after 4:15PM? Hint: Consider what you learned about how the kitchen staff prepared and served the BBQ.
Should you conduct another epidemiology study to test your hypothesis? Why or why not?Answering the original questions (who, what, when, where and why) of this outbreak is not the end of an epidemiology outbreak investigation. You have learned a great deal of information about EATC’s practices and the association to the outbreak. Your knowledge should be shared with EATC’s staff and with public health stakeholders so they may avoid future outbreaks, develop policies and to assist other epidemiologist conducting similar investigations. To close the outbreak investigation an epidemiologist will write a report to communicate the methods used in the investigation, the results of the investigation, and your recommendations to prevent future outbreaks. This report serves as a public health record of the investigation and will be used as a reference for future outbreaks. An investigative report can also serve as a scientific finding to promote change in health policy.
Considering the EATC training center had two GI illness outbreaks in the recent past and you’ve found evidence that the correct outbreak is related to food, what recommendations would you give to EATC to prevent future food borne illnesses?

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